If you will allow me, I'd like to shift attention away from the Arab Spring for a moment to discuss Iran.
**Note: This article is in no way supporting or arguing against a war with Iran or any other country. These are merely observations, and thoughts on how future events may unfold.**
"Why A War With Iran Is Inevitable"
December 5th, 2011
Toronto, ON
For a number of years, there have been suggestions in the media that the United States and/or Israel may be seeking a war with Iran. Certain political figures in both countries have made little effort to hide their desire for a war, and have openly promoted the idea as being in the best interests of global security.
As America's attention has shifted from campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, it has increasingly turned towards Iran. Long suspected of enriching uranium for the development of a nuclear weapon, Tehran insists that it seeks to develop its nuclear capacities for peaceful purposes only. Israel, the United States and many other nations are skeptical, as President Ahmadinejad has a long history of threatening the destruction of Israel and her allies publicly.
As recent estimates suggest that Iran may have a nuclear weapon by next year, the question on the minds of many is this: Is war with Iran inevitable?
Several arguments have been put forward, stating that a war is unlikely. The most common of these arguments relates to the current global economic situation, and states that the cost of a war with Iran is simply too high for the United States to afford. It is generally agreed by all that a war with Iran would prove far more costly than the Iraq invasion of 2003, in terms of finances and the loss of human lives. Diplomacy, it is argued, provides the best means for dissuading Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Diplomacy, however, has certain limits. Sanctions can be imposed ad inifinitum by the United States, Britain and others, but Iran still maintains close ties with countries such as China and Venezuela, and will not be prevented from developing its nuclear capacities by sanctions alone.
At a certain point, when all diplomatic options have been exhausted, military intervention will remain as the final option on the table.
Why War is Inevitable
As mentioned above, the United States has predicted that Iran will have the capacity to assemble a nuclear weapon sometime within 2012. The United States' goal is to prevent Iran from acquiring such a weapon, because such an acquisition will lead to a shift in the balance of power in the Middle East. Should diplomacy and sanctions continue as the "chosen path" to dissuade Iran, the United States will soon find that it has run out of time, and Iran has acquired the weapon.
The United States and Israel will not allow this scenario to play out.
As the time nears, the United States and Israel will increasingly feel pressured to launch a military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel, in fact, has already stated that it would, if necessary, attack Iranian nuclear facilities with or without the help of the Americans. To this point, the United States has convinced Israel to delay such an attack. (Bill Clinton apparently even convinced Israel to hold off on an invasion during his time in office.)
When-- and not if-- such an attack occurs, Iran will inevitably respond, and the region will experience further destabilization. At such a point, the only way to ensure future stability, according to the U.S and Israel, will be to push for regime change in Iran.
Global consequences
When the war effort begins, a number of nations will likely offer their support, financially and militarily, to the United States. What is certain, however, is that Russia and China will not be among them. For many years, Russia and China have vocally stated their objections to a war with Iran, and will inevitably veto any UN Security Council resolution regarding a war with Iran. Unlike the invasion of Iraq, which was preceded by UN Security Council resolution 1441 (which passed with a 15-0 vote), the United States and Israel will likely turn their backs on the United Nations and will march forward without the blessings of the Security Council.
While some have expressed fears that involvement by China and Russia in support of Iran will lead to "World War III", I suspect that their participation may be limited to funding Iran at the very most, and complete non-involvement at the very least.
In any case, relations between the powers will be strained, creating a new dynamic on the global stage.
What about the Green Revolution?
Another argument put forward against an intervention in Iran cites the recent "Green Revolution" that occurred shortly before the Arab Spring. It is clear that a sizable portion of the Iranian population is living in discontent with the current regime, and that there is a strong desire for change. "Why not help them achieve the goals of their revolution from the inside?", some have suggested.
The problem for the United States and Israel is this: Polls in Iran show that the Iranian populace, whether supporters of the government or not, are all united in their belief that Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology and possess nuclear weapons. Therefore, even a regime change from within may not produce the desired results for the Americans.
Conclusion
The United States and Israel desire an Iranian government that is friendly. They desire a government that will not seek to disrupt the balance of power in the Middle East at present. They desire a government that will not seek to develop nuclear capacities. These are the three key points.
No matter whether it's the current regime that acquires a weapon, or whether a revolution from within brings to power a new government, there is a strong likelihood that Iran will acquire a nuclear weapon. A nuclear Iran will shift the balance of power in the region dramatically, and will create a "worst-case" scenario for a fearful Israel.
Time is against the Americans now. Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapon does not equate to an instant attack on Israel. They may well not attack at all, causing the rest of the world to say: "See? Iran was telling the truth. Their motives are peaceful after all."
In such a case, global support for an invasion of Iran will drop drastically. The balance will have forever shifted.
The cost of a war will be high. An unwilling American public may be forced to pay the bill.
In my opinion, the United States and Israel will not take any chances, and will make a strategic move before Iran has the chance to develop a weapon.
~
**Note: This article is in no way supporting or arguing against a war with Iran or any other country. These are merely observations, and thoughts on how future events may unfold.**
"Why A War With Iran Is Inevitable"
December 5th, 2011
Toronto, ON
For a number of years, there have been suggestions in the media that the United States and/or Israel may be seeking a war with Iran. Certain political figures in both countries have made little effort to hide their desire for a war, and have openly promoted the idea as being in the best interests of global security.
As America's attention has shifted from campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, it has increasingly turned towards Iran. Long suspected of enriching uranium for the development of a nuclear weapon, Tehran insists that it seeks to develop its nuclear capacities for peaceful purposes only. Israel, the United States and many other nations are skeptical, as President Ahmadinejad has a long history of threatening the destruction of Israel and her allies publicly.
As recent estimates suggest that Iran may have a nuclear weapon by next year, the question on the minds of many is this: Is war with Iran inevitable?
Several arguments have been put forward, stating that a war is unlikely. The most common of these arguments relates to the current global economic situation, and states that the cost of a war with Iran is simply too high for the United States to afford. It is generally agreed by all that a war with Iran would prove far more costly than the Iraq invasion of 2003, in terms of finances and the loss of human lives. Diplomacy, it is argued, provides the best means for dissuading Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Diplomacy, however, has certain limits. Sanctions can be imposed ad inifinitum by the United States, Britain and others, but Iran still maintains close ties with countries such as China and Venezuela, and will not be prevented from developing its nuclear capacities by sanctions alone.
At a certain point, when all diplomatic options have been exhausted, military intervention will remain as the final option on the table.
Why War is Inevitable
As mentioned above, the United States has predicted that Iran will have the capacity to assemble a nuclear weapon sometime within 2012. The United States' goal is to prevent Iran from acquiring such a weapon, because such an acquisition will lead to a shift in the balance of power in the Middle East. Should diplomacy and sanctions continue as the "chosen path" to dissuade Iran, the United States will soon find that it has run out of time, and Iran has acquired the weapon.
The United States and Israel will not allow this scenario to play out.
As the time nears, the United States and Israel will increasingly feel pressured to launch a military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel, in fact, has already stated that it would, if necessary, attack Iranian nuclear facilities with or without the help of the Americans. To this point, the United States has convinced Israel to delay such an attack. (Bill Clinton apparently even convinced Israel to hold off on an invasion during his time in office.)
When-- and not if-- such an attack occurs, Iran will inevitably respond, and the region will experience further destabilization. At such a point, the only way to ensure future stability, according to the U.S and Israel, will be to push for regime change in Iran.
Global consequences
When the war effort begins, a number of nations will likely offer their support, financially and militarily, to the United States. What is certain, however, is that Russia and China will not be among them. For many years, Russia and China have vocally stated their objections to a war with Iran, and will inevitably veto any UN Security Council resolution regarding a war with Iran. Unlike the invasion of Iraq, which was preceded by UN Security Council resolution 1441 (which passed with a 15-0 vote), the United States and Israel will likely turn their backs on the United Nations and will march forward without the blessings of the Security Council.
While some have expressed fears that involvement by China and Russia in support of Iran will lead to "World War III", I suspect that their participation may be limited to funding Iran at the very most, and complete non-involvement at the very least.
In any case, relations between the powers will be strained, creating a new dynamic on the global stage.
What about the Green Revolution?
Another argument put forward against an intervention in Iran cites the recent "Green Revolution" that occurred shortly before the Arab Spring. It is clear that a sizable portion of the Iranian population is living in discontent with the current regime, and that there is a strong desire for change. "Why not help them achieve the goals of their revolution from the inside?", some have suggested.
The problem for the United States and Israel is this: Polls in Iran show that the Iranian populace, whether supporters of the government or not, are all united in their belief that Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology and possess nuclear weapons. Therefore, even a regime change from within may not produce the desired results for the Americans.
Conclusion
The United States and Israel desire an Iranian government that is friendly. They desire a government that will not seek to disrupt the balance of power in the Middle East at present. They desire a government that will not seek to develop nuclear capacities. These are the three key points.
No matter whether it's the current regime that acquires a weapon, or whether a revolution from within brings to power a new government, there is a strong likelihood that Iran will acquire a nuclear weapon. A nuclear Iran will shift the balance of power in the region dramatically, and will create a "worst-case" scenario for a fearful Israel.
Time is against the Americans now. Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapon does not equate to an instant attack on Israel. They may well not attack at all, causing the rest of the world to say: "See? Iran was telling the truth. Their motives are peaceful after all."
In such a case, global support for an invasion of Iran will drop drastically. The balance will have forever shifted.
The cost of a war will be high. An unwilling American public may be forced to pay the bill.
In my opinion, the United States and Israel will not take any chances, and will make a strategic move before Iran has the chance to develop a weapon.
